Categories
Investing Uruguay

IMF Ups Forecast for Uruguay’s Growth

A quick read about Uruguay’s stronger-than-expected growth projections. In spite of some of the economic difficulties of its neighbors, Uruguay is proving itself, time and time again, as a beacon of stability within the region. As usual, my emphasis is in bold with my comments in italics.

IMF ups forecast for Uruguay’s growth in 2016 to 0.7% – In October it had anticipated 0.1%

Friday, December 9th 2016 – 16:30 UTC
International Monitary FundUruguay was doing better than the October figures were telling, according to IMF.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday raised its forecast for economic growth in Uruguay this year to 0.7%, a substantial increase from the 0.1% estimated in October, (this is a seven-fold increase from the original projection) and underlined the country’s resilience to the problems of its neighbors Argentina and Brazil.

Uruguay is proving resistance to deep recessions in its large neighbors (Argentina and Brazil),“ said the IMF’s technicians mission after finishing its visit to the country for the annual review of the economy. For the year, the IMF expects Uruguay to grow by 0.7% and a slight rebound in 2017 to 1.1%, as it ”improves the external environment and private consumption“. In October, the IMF had placed calculations for Uruguay in an expansion of 0.1% in 2016 and 1.2% in 2017.

The report by the international financial institution highlights that ”despite the slowdown in activity, inflation persists at levels above the target band set by the central bank,“ ranging from 3% to 7% a year. Following the measures taken by the Central Bank this year, and having hit a year-on-year high in May of 11%, “inflation is forecast to remain below 9% in 2017 and it will be progressively reduced to approximately 6% in the medium term.”

Looking ahead, the IMF stressed that ”a slower than expected recovery in Argentina and Brazil could be a drag on the economy, and the same would happen with weaker growth projected in China.“

In addition, IMF officials stressed the need to move forward in fiscal consolidation ”as debt levels have increased significantly in recent years, and financial markets closely monitor implementation of the adjustment,” with the goal of reducing the budget deficit to 2.5% of GDP by 2019.

Categories
Agricultural Investing Argentina Argentina economy Articles Latin America relations Uncategorized Uruguay

Argentina and Uruguay Agree on How to Approach Trade with China

Earlier this month, we talked about Uruguay’s trade dealings with China.  Today, we’ll look at how Uruguay and Argentina have come to a consensus on how to approach future trade deals with China.  My emphasis is in bold with my comments in italics

Macri and Vazquez agree that the trade approach to China should be done from Mercosur

Tuesday, October 25th 2016 – 10:29 UTC by Merco Press
Macri said that his government understands Uruguay´s need to have access to other markets and open to the world's second largest economy.

Macri said that his government understands Uruguay’s need to have access to other markets and to be open to the worlds’ second largest economy.

Argentine president Mauricio Macri promised his Uruguayan peer Tabare Vazquez to look into the draft of a Uruguay/China free trade deal, and expressed their deep concern about political events in Venezuela suggesting that under the current circumstances the Nicolas Maduro government cannot be considered a member of Mercosur (Things in Venezuela are not looking good.  Drastic shortages of food, medicine, electricity and other necessities are causing small riots. Organized crime and extrajudicial police killings have given the country a frighteningly high rate of murder and violence.  Runaway inflation means that from March 2015 to 2016 a basket of basic goods for a family of five became 524 % more expensive).

During a meeting on Monday midday at the Olivos presidential residence in Buenos Aires, Macri said that his government understands Uruguay´s need to have access to other markets and open to the world’s second largest economy.

“China is an option for Uruguay. With Vazquez we ratified the need to speed up this deal, in principle from inside Mercosur, but anyway I promised an open attitude and to look into what Uruguay is requesting”, said the Argentine leader. (Mercosur, which translated means Southern Common Market, was created in 1991 as a trade agreement aimed at providing free circulation of goods, services, and productive factors within member countries (Brazil, Paraguay, Venezuela, Uruguay, and Argentina) through the elimination of obstacles to regional trade).

“We understand that Uruguay produces food for ten times their population (A population of only three million people currently feeding 50 million) so it is only natural they should look for markets, but the ideal situation would have been for the issue to have been presented by Mercosur as a block, as we are doing with the European Union” emphasized Macri (Earlier this year, the EU Trade Commissioner and the Foreign Minister for Uruguay, who currently holds the rotating presidency of Mercosur, discussed the next steps in the negotiations on an EU-Mercosur trade agreement. The EU and Mercosur agreed to exchange market access offers specifying ways to increase mutual openness to each other’s goods and services, including access to public tenders. Those discussions also resulted in the adoption of a road map for talks during the rest of the year). 

Vazquez underlined the very generous attitude of Macri and thanked Argentina for having such consideration.

We coincided in advancing in a free trade agreement with China through Mercosur. But [we need to take] into account that Beijing came up with the possibility of such a deal six years ago and Mercosur did not reply, it would be positive that at the next Mercosur meeting we address the issue”, indicated Vazquez.

“In the meantime Uruguay will continue to explore the way to advance in a free trade project with China. We’ve already presented the road map for such a treaty and the extent planned. China has not replied yet but when they do, it will be shared with all Mercosur members”, he added.

Regarding Venezuela, both presidents agreed that under the current situation, “we are deeply concerned with the political problems, and we shared the opinion that under these circumstances they can’t be members of Mercosur. The Maduro administration must be condemned and disavowed by all American countries since there is no respect for human rights” (As another point of context, in May of this year, Uruguay prepared to pass the president-pro-tempore seat to Venezuela by the end of June.  However, Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil fiercely opposed this. Their arguments against Venezuela’s new role cited the country’s failure to follow the union’s rules as well as concerns about the government’s stance against its opposition).

Vazquez went further and said concern, regrettably, grows by the minute and “we are looking forward to a peaceful solution to the controversy, to dialogue between the Venezuelan government and the opposition. We also talked about the mediation from Pope Francis”.

Macri and Vazquez added that during the next Mercosur meeting whether to apply or not the democratic clause on Venezuela will be considered, since that is the correct place to consider such option.

“Uruguay will be attending the meeting and demand respect for peoples’ right to express their opinions and be respected. That is the essence of democracy and the direct participation of peoples”, added the Uruguayan leader.

Other issues considered by the presidents were drugs and crime, pollution in shared rivers and water ways, natural gas sales and the possibility of building another bridge across the River Uruguay that acts as a natural border between the neighboring countries.

Finally Vazquez, who never had a good relation or chemistry with the Kirchner couple, was most grateful with Macri and his hospitality. “I am profoundly grateful for his hospitality and friendship, with the Argentine president we have found ample paths of understanding”.

 

 

Categories
Agricultural Investing Argentina Articles Latin America relations Uncategorized Uruguay

Uruguay’s Controversial Trade Dealings with China

An article from the China Daily about recent trade discussions between Uruguay and China and how these discussions are impacting neighboring countries in LatAm.  My bold and comments in italics:

China, Uruguay establish strategic partnership

China, Uruguay establish strategic partnership

Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) shakes hands with his Uruguayan counterpart Tabare Vazquez during their talks at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Oct 18, 2016. [Photo/Xinhua]

BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Uruguayan counterpart Tabare Vazquez on Tuesday agreed to establish a strategic partnership based on respect, equality and mutual benefit. (Vazquez also signed infrastructure investment and technical agreements that will pave the way for greater agricultural exports to China)

The two heads of state made the decision during talks in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing following a red-carpet welcome ceremony.

Xi urged China and the Latin American country to maintain high-level exchanges and enhance communication at all levels to promote mutual understanding and trust. (Uruguay’s bid for a free trade agreement, however, is not without controversy.  Uruguay is one of the five full members of MERCOSUR, along with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Venezuela.  Argentina’s President, Mauricio Macri, said on Oct 20th that any China-Uruguay free trade agreement negotiations should be conducted through MERCOSUR.  According to the bloc’s rules, full member states cannot negotiate free trade agreements with non-members without consent of their MERCOSUR peers.  Vazquez responded to Macri by saying that Argentina and Brazil have been pushing for more flexible rules that would allow members to negotiate bilateral trade agreements)

China appreciates Uruguayan support for the Belt and Road initiative, and hopes both sides will strengthen integration of development strategies to upgrade economic and trade ties, said Xi.

China is willing to encourage more investment in Uruguay, channelled toward infrastructure projects, Xi stressed, adding that the country is also looking forward to expanding cooperation in agriculture, clean energy, communications, mining, manufacturing and finance.

In addition, Xi called on both sides to promote people-to-people exchanges and lift ties in culture, education, science and technology, Antarctica, tourism as well as football sport.

As for global affairs, Xi said that China is ready to strengthen collaboration with Uruguay in climate change, economic governance, UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, peace-keeping and South-South cooperation.

On China-Latin America relations, Xi stressed that China is a strong supporter for Latin American stability, unity and development. China is ready to work with Latin American countries to forge a community of shared future. (The other side of this argument was articulated by Argentina and Brazil when they voiced that China was the major exception to their pro-trade rhetoric.  Both governments are under pressure at home that a China-Uruguay free trade deal would exacerbate their manufacturing sectors, particularly that Chinese imports could outcompete their local products.  For example, Brazil wants to negotiate a trade deal that makes it easier to export the higher-value goods it produces, such as aircraft, but is reluctant to allow more Chinese imports into its borders).

Echoing Xi’s remarks, Vazquez said that the establishment of a strategic partnership will begin a new chapter of Uruguay-China ties. Uruguay welcomes more Chinese investment in the country and is willing to negotiate a free trade agreement with China.

Uruguay supports the one-China policy and backs China’s reunification, according to Vazquez.

Speaking highly of China’s significant role in global affairs, Vazquez stressed that Uruguay was ready to work with China to push forward Latin America-China relations and enhance coordination on international and regional issues.

Macri and Vazquez met on Oct 24 in Buenos Aires to further discuss Uruguay’s potential deal with China.  More on that shortly

Categories
Agricultural Investing Articles Cattle Investing Uncategorized Uruguay

Uruguayan Argo-Industry Continues to Drive Economy Forward

Below is an article from WorldFolio about the growing agro-industry in Uruguay and how it’s driving their economy forward.  My bold and comments in italics.

Food exports grow as agro-industry continues to drive economy forward

Uruguayan Cattle

The Minister of Agriculture wants to see the nation of 3 million people produce food for as many as 50 million in the next 15 years. But as Uruguay continues to increase the quantity of exports and reach new markets, it aims to maintain the high quality for which its agricultural and meat products are renowned (I think this will be the biggest challenge for Uruguay in their efforts to meet this goal: scale accordingly while maintaining high quality standards; something they’re world-renowned for).

Financial experts have long been bullish over the state of Uruguay’s economy, praising the nation for developing a strong institutional framework that has helped it weather external shocks.

Last year the World Bank categorized Uruguay’s macroeconomic policy as “prudent,” though the global finance overseer expressed concerns over “relatively high” debt and an export system that is based largely on connections to other countries in the region ( It should be noted that Uruguay’s national debt decreased by nearly $500M USD from Q1 to Q2 2016.  This connection with other countries in the region doesn’t have to be seen as a completely negative characteristic, especially since Uruguay is the world’s 4th and 6th largest exporter of rice and soybeans respectively.  Their beef products also export to over 150 world markets, speaking to their reach beyond LatAm). With this in mind, officials in Uruguay have expressed a desire to widen the reach of its agriculture industry outside of its neighboring states.

“Uruguay is a country that in 2005 produced food for 9 million people, and we were a country of 3 million,” says Uruguay’s Minister of Agriculture Tabaré Aguerre. “Today we produce food for 28 million people, and we are still 3 million. My goal is to produce food for 50 million people in 15 years.” (That’s a 3x increase in food production in just 11 years. All they have to do to reach 50 million is double again in 15 years.  I think this is absolutely feasible).   

According to Mr. Aguerre, 55% of Uruguay’s industrial output is made up of agro-industries, along with 47% of all industrial sector jobs. The agriculture minister explained this relative leg-up on the competition was due in part to Uruguay’s place in the world and a wide range of recent changes in Uruguay’s economy.

“In the same way that investment have increased, the rate of exportation has also increased from Uruguay. Uruguay tripled the value of its exports, not in volume, but rather in value. We are a country that exports close to $10 billion in goods and services, with 80% of those being goods. And inside of that 80%, 78% of the exports are agriculture or livestock or agro-industry,” Mr. Aguerre says.

“Uruguay has comparative natural advantages, but beyond these, we have developed intelligent competitive advantages by improving genetics, the production system, research […] the national seed certification program [or] the national quality fertilizer program.” (This tells me Uruguay is doing more than just resting on the laurels of their God-given agricultural land.  They’re innovating and adapting; a sign that their success in agriculture will continue).

Originally made agriculture minister in 2010, Mr. Aguerre has made a career as an agronomist researching everything from rice cultivation to cattle breeding in Uruguay. He was recently reappointed to the role in 2015 by Uruguayan President Tabaré Vazquez.

“That is how we are taking advantage of the window of opportunity that the decade from 2005 to 2015 gave us. [It has been] a time of great structural transformation in the world, particularly in the world of food production.”

Mr. Aguerre also highlighted an accelerated process of economic convergence during that time period, when “the growth rate for developed countries [was] less than the growth rate for developing countries.” (Once this gap closes, maybe completely, many international investors will begin to realize the underutilized value of agricultural land in Uruguay and LatAm, writ large.  When that happens, expect land prices in Uruguay to rise with a growing investor sentiment.  Get in early while prices are still good).

Because of that, he said, “the gap between the two is continuing to close.”

Executives in Uruguay have also pointed to the agricultural industry as a source of advantages in the world of business and economics.

“A few years ago, after several attempts to identify which would be the economic sectors that would push Uruguay to development, it was reconfirmed that the agro-industry was an extremely important for the economy of this country. The sector is not seasonal, gives activity the whole year and also invigorates other complementary sectors such as transport, or retail,” says Gastón Scayola, Vice President of Frigorífico San Jacinto NIREA S.A., a meat producer and exporter located in Montevideo. (Uruguay’s predictable, year-round rainfall, geographic location above the world’s largest aquifer, the potential for two crops per year growing cycles, developed land rental market, and limited government intervention also characterizes the strength of Uruguay’s agro-business market).


Left: Tabaré Aguerre, Minister of Agriculture | Right: Álvaro Silberstein, General Manager, Paycueros-Sadesa


“We have a great responsibility in terms of employment and the sector is the answer for most of the growth in the last few years (An understanding of the nation’s responsibility to its people). Obviously other activities such as the financial sector and tourism are also key activities for Uruguay, but our livelihood is agriculture for the long-term bet. In a world where much food will be needed over the coming years, this area of South America is destined to produce more and better.” (The world’s population is expected to reach 9.7 billion people by 2050.  That equates to about a 60% increase in food production.  I believe Latin American agriculture is poised to not only support this growth trend, but profit from it.)

Frigorífico San Jacinto has billed itself as a producer of high-quality beef products. In September 2015, the company made its first shipment of naturally produced Uruguayan beef certified by the US Department of Agriculture as “Never Ever 3” grade. This marking denotes that the meat is free from antibiotics and growth hormones, a fact which has reportedly helped to consolidate Uruguay’s exports in a market where demand for naturally raised and processed meat is growing steadily. (This is especially true as the demand from US consumers for quality, grass-fed beef continues to rise, e.g. Verde Farms, who get a good portion of their beef from Uruguay).

Mr. Scayola has also lauded Uruguay as a hub of traceability, a system whereby animals are monitored via a microchip attached to their ear. These microchips tell agricultural experts the dates when the animals passed inspection, the place they came from and where they are going. (Uruguayan beef is 100% traceable, meaning every piece of meat from an animal can be traced to its originating farm). 

He explains that only a country as small as Uruguay could maintain such a close eye on their cattle and adds that his company has been the recent benefactor of a US decision to allow ovine (sheep) meat on the bone to be exported from Uruguay.

“The United States enabled us [to export] boneless meat a few years ago and now [they] have just approved the entry of meat with bone, thanks to the separation of sheep and cattle in the fields,” he says.

“With regards to sheep, we [have] 30% market share. We are the leading company and the one that has been the most aggressive in developing new markets and producing premium meat. San Jacinto are the only US enabled sheep plant.”

“It means a lot to get into the United States. [We can] enter the US market and fight with Australia, but also, once the United States approves the original mechanism theme compartment, immediately there is a high probability that Canada and Mexico [will also start accepting our goods], and that process can also open Europe. So we have many fronts and the United States is the first step of many.” (They understand the importance of needing to reach beyond the markets in their immediate vicinity into the global stage).

Executives elsewhere in Uruguay also highlighted a need to make the nation a more lucrative player in international trade. Álvaro Silberstein, General Manager of Paycueros-Sadesa, a leather exporter based Paysandú in western Uruguay, says that the country must specifically focus on agro-industry productivity.

“We have always considered that Uruguay should grow by relying on its export sector,” Mr. Silberstein says.

Founded in 1948, Paycuwas created with a “vision” that would advance exportation. As a part Sadesa, one of the leading group of tanners in the world, the company specialized in high-quality leather production for some of the “most prestigious” companies around the globe.

Mr. Silberstein explains the factors behind the quality of the hides the company uses.

“Meat companies operating in Uruguay are the largest exporters. Many also sell in the local market but they are basically exporters. Therefore, they are very technologically up to date. That makes the extraction of hides very precise – all machining and no knife. The hides are removed very healthily and that is also very important for us,” Mr. Silberstein says.

“In addition, because of the type of pasture we have and the type of production that is done, hides do not suffer as much as in tropical areas, where problems can affect the value of the material. That makes Uruguayan and Argentinian hides a sought after commodity in the world.”

Today the company boasts offices on five continents and a global export network that spans from South America to Asia.  (Again, a global reach)

“Our vocation is as an exporter. In the case of hides, Uruguay does not have a market of significant consumption, and therefore the strategy is to add value to domestic raw materials and export them to the world.

“This new situation of slower growth should be seen as a new opportunity to re-look at export markets, and how to create the conditions for growth based on those exports. We have the conditions to do so because we have raw materials that will continue to be demanded around the world, and the ability to convert and add value that may be appropriate for the country through exports.” (China is also a strong market for Uruguay’s sheep and beef products)

However, others have urged an element of caution in Uruguay’s long-term export strategy. According to a study by the Observatory of Economic Complexity, Uruguay’s annual exports amount to more than $9 billion, with agro-industry staples like bovine meat, rice and soybeans being the largest export earners. The main importers of these Uruguayan goods are neighboring Brazil and Argentina, along with the US and China.

Industry insider William Johnson says this dependency on importing nations makes keeping a wary eye on economic activity outside of Uruguay crucial. (Agreed, but not a limiting factor, especially if Uruguay can continue to build their quality leather and sheep-meat markets up to the current levels of their beef products).

“Our goal is to eventually get to a point where we are not only exporting [material], but we want to add value [too],” he adds.

“We are a services country and we have to be tied a bit to the forces that guide the world.

“When Argentina goes off the rails, we have to look to our side to Brazil. When Brazil goes off the rails, we have to look to our side to Argentina. And when both are off the rails, it’s when we suffer big problems. We can’t export so much and then let sales and production fall. Because we are such a small country it’s difficult to compete in the rest of the world without the support of Argentina and Brazil.”

 

Categories
Agricultural Investing Argentina Articles Cattle Investing South American Agriculture Uncategorized Uruguay

Farmland as an Asset Class & Personal Advice from Successful International Investors

Below is a great excerpt from a recent Q&A session with international, multi-millionaire investor Doug Casey and author/analyst for Casey Research’s Crisis Investing publication Nick Giambruno.  Doug and Nick answer questions about their personal asset allocations and give their thoughts on farmland as an asset class.  Find my areas of interest in bold and comments in []

[QUESTION] WHAT IS YOUR PERSONAL ASSET ALLOCATION?

Doug Casey: I’m heavily in gold, to preserve capital. I own a lot of speculative resource stocks, because they’re very cheap now; I’ll sell them when they, too, become a bubble. I’m moving into commodities—grains and cattle are both quite cheap. [Argentina hosts of wide variety of agricultural opportunities at competitive prices, including cattle pasture land.  Pasture land is available in the $400 – $1,200/acre range, depending on the quality of the soil and availability of water.  In April 2016, Argentina’s beef exports were up 25% from April 2015, likely due in part to the USDA’s lifting of a 14-year hold on the importation of Argentine beef products.  High quality, fattening pasture land is available for approximately $2,000/acre.  Not counting the initial land investment and feed costs, it’s possible to yield a 40-45% annual ROI per head of cattle. Uruguay also offers an extremely developed and quality cattle operation.  Uruguay’s beef products are 100% traceable (the only place in the world this occurs), export to over 150 world markets, and nearly all of their 12 million cows are raised on natural pastures and among superior quality and sanitation practices where hormones and antibiotics are forbidden.]  And a lot of rural real estate, especially outside the US, because political risks are at least as great as market risks today.

Nick Giambruno: I own a lot of precious metals–related assets, some dividend aristocrats, some cash and some foreign real estate.

I am particularly fond of foreign real estate. I think of it like a diversification grand slam. [AG DTours believes in taking this one step further: owning agricultural land in a foreign country.  It offers diversification, a tangle storage of wealth, income generation, and a level of protection from volatile US markets.]

Like a grand slam in baseball, owning foreign real estate is the most potent move possible in a single play. It accomplishes four goals at once…

  1. Move Savings Abroad

Though it’s illiquid and has carrying costs, foreign real estate can function as a hard asset with diplomatic immunity. It’s an asset outside the immediate reach of your home government. It’s highly unlikely they can seize it.

  2. Create Other Diversification Options

In most cases, owning foreign real estate in a country provides a valid justification for you to open a financial account in that foreign country (whereas you may not have been able to before). [Many of these same opportunities are available with the ownership of agricultural land as well].  Obtaining real estate in a foreign country usually gives you some sort of residency, sometimes a shortened path to citizenship, and, in the case of certain countries, like Dominica and St. Kitts and Nevis, immediate citizenship and a second passport. Owning foreign real estate provides you with a second home, potentially a place to retire and an emergency bolt-hole that you could, in an instant, always escape to in case of trouble in your home country.

  3. Portfolio Diversification

Foreign real estate is a tangible hard asset that has diversification benefits for a traditional portfolio of stocks, bonds, precious metals, etc. It has the potential for capital appreciation as well as the ability to generate rental income in a currency other than the US dollar. [While an ag-based investment won’t generate rental income unless your investment also has a residence on it, it can generate income from the sale of the commodities it produces].

  4. Privacy and Tax Benefits

Owning foreign real estate is one of the very few ways that Americans can legally keep some of their wealth abroad while retaining their financial privacy. If the foreign real estate is held directly in your name (i.e., not in a trust, LLC, real estate fund, partnership, etc.), it is not reportable (although any rental income must be reported). [There are just as many tax and business incentives with a Latin American-based agricultural investment.  For more details, check out our white paper on the homepage of our website.]

I’ve personally invested in Colombian real estate. I also think Argentina is very attractive right now. With the election of a pro-market president, Mauricio Macri, there’s a good chance Argentina is also turning the corner to a brighter economic future. That, along with the incredible lifestyle, is why I’m now happily an owner at Doug’s La Estancia de Cafayate. I consider both Colombia and Argentina to be good examples of crisis investing in action.

[QUESTION] IS FARMLAND THE NEXT ASSET CLASS TO SHOOT UP, ALONG WITH GOLD, AND WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO PLAY IT?

Doug Casey: Well, let me reemphasize that basically all the agricultural commodities are very cheap, and cattle are again very cheap. I think agricultural commodities are going much higher. Like the metals, they’ve been in a five-year bear market. Farmland I think will go up, too. [These are the precisely the types of opportunities AG DTours wants to provide you first-hand experience with in Latin America.  The availability of US farmland is decreasing, prices are rising, and annual returns are falling.  Latin American agriculture can by the alternative investment solution in which many US investors are seeking.]  

Nick Giambruno: I think farmland is the ultimate hard asset. Like gold, its value can’t be diluted by central bankers. Unlike gold, it produces food, the most basic of human needs.

Source:  Doug and Nick Answer Your Crisis Investing Questions

 

Categories
Agricultural Investing Argentina Articles South American Agriculture Uncategorized Uruguay

Global Farmland Index/Prices – Savills World Research

A great report just released by Savills World Research last month describing the state of global farmland from 2012 to the present.  The report is based on data from 15 different world agricultural markets and is designed to provide comparative data on global farmland prices and market summaries.  Here a few highlights from the report

  •  The Global Farmland Index recorded an average annualised growth of 14.8% since 2002 and 6.6% over the past five years.

  • Farmland values are less volatile than other commodities and were significantly less affected by the credit crunch in 2008.

Global Farmland Index Graph

  • South America showed a 17.5% annualised growth since 2002.  The above graph shows South America was only outperformed in index growth by Central Europe; now facing extremely unstable times due to the Brexit.

  • The report describes an innovative way of benchmarking farmland prices to account for regional variables or more specifically investment spend relative to output by determining the cost of acquiring land in order to grow a tonne of wheat. Our ‘land cost for wheat production’ league (Figure 3 below) takes the average value of farmland in 2015 and divides it by the average harvest wheat yield over seven years (2008 to 2014). By taking a seven year period it allows for any weather fluctuations to be accounted for.

Cost of Land Graph

  • Note that Uruguay and Argentina have some of the lowest costs of land per tonne of wheat values.

  • Investor interest and demand to diversify investment portfolio’s will remain strong. Farmland performance tends to be counter-cyclical to other assets

Bottom Line to Investors

  • Agriculture is a long term investment to iron out volatility.

  • Diversify your portfolio to spread risk across different regions

  • Due diligence, especially with a range of cultures, political administrations, ownership structures, tax regimes, foreign investment regulations, is essential to understand global markets.

  • The right asset in the right market will yield positive returns for the investor in the long term.

Categories
South American Agriculture Uncategorized Uruguay

The South America Crop Report for April 10, 2016 – FarmsUY

In March, China imported 13,998 tons of Uruguayan beef, a 10% increase over the same month in 2015 and one of the best months in history.

Source: The South America Crop Report for April 10, 2016 – FarmsUY